World Cup 2026 Group D Preview: USMNT, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye

With the expanded tournament, there are a handful of "group(s) of death" at the 2026 World Cup, and Group D is most certainly one of them. No team in the group, USA, Paraguay, Australia, or Türkiye, is ranked outside the top 40 by FIFA. Still, whatever two or three teams emerge from the dogfight will be better for it. The expectation is that the USMNT will top the group, but they'll have to penetrate Paraguay's defense and fight back Türkiye's Güler/Yıldız led attack. Here's what to know.

United States (USMNT)

Coach Mauricio Pochettino

Hot take. From a pure talent perspective, this is the best USMNT ever. I think they make it to the quarterfinals. And I think that's the marker for success.

One thing to know that'll make you sound smart to your friends. "The closest the US has come to the WC semifinals since 1930 was the 2002 quarterfinal against Germany, lost 1-0 to a handball on the goal line the referee never called (because VAR didn't exist). The two Americans at the heart of that play, Gregg Berhalter and captain Claudio Reyna, both have sons in this World Cup squad: Sebastian Berhalter and Gio Reyna."

Word from home. Mauricio Pochettino refusing to lower the bar for a side that's starting to believe him:

"If you don't win, what does it matter?" Mauricio Pochettino, ESPN

The story. Pochettino's "why not us" ambition ran straight into a roster backlash, especially at the exclusion of Diego Luna, Tanner Tessmann, and Aidan Morris. Since then, the US men have defeated Senegal handily and went toe-to-toe with Germany in a loss. Either way, the results haven't been as bad as the criticism.

Head vs. heart. Opta's supercomputer makes the co-hosts group favorites, out of the group 77 percent of the time and first in 32.4 percent, but just 1.2 percent to win it all.

One thing to read. World Cup Pass & Move: The Boys of Summer, Grantland (2014).

Paraguay (La Albirroja)

Coach Gustavo Alfaro

Hot take. They're tough and they regularly train at altitude. Nobody wants to play Paraguay, and Alfaro's grinders are going to ruin someone's tournament.

One thing to know that'll make you sound smart to your friends. "Paraguay haven't conceded more than one goal in any of their last 10 World Cup matches. Whatever else they are, they are extremely hard to break down."

Word from home. Alfaro has the people believing in the Paraguayan side again, best summed up by a fan at home:

"I'd at least like to reach the round of 16." a Paraguay supporter, Yahoo Noticias

The story. Paraguay are in the World Cup for the first time since 2010, where they made it to the quarterfinals and placed eighth. Argentine fixer Gustavo Alfaro has brought the team back from the brink.

Head vs. heart. Opta's supercomputer rates Paraguay third in the group but still better than a coin flip to advance into the round of 32 at 64.3 percent.

One thing to read. When Paraguay Ruled the World, Football Heritage (2025).

Australia (Socceroos)

Coach Tony Popovic

Hot take. The Aussies don't make it out of the group stage, but Nestory Irankunda puts his stamp on the tournament as one of the most exciting young players.

One thing to know that'll make you sound smart to your friends. "Australia have lost their opening match at five of their six previous World Cups. The only exception was beating Japan in 2006."

Word from home. Tony Popovic has made the quarterfinals the goal:

"We want to do something special and make our nation proud." Tony Popovic, Flashscore

The story. Youth is the story. Popovic picked the second-youngest Socceroos World Cup squad ever, built around Irankunda and the Italy-to-Australia switch of Cristian Volpato.

Head vs. heart. Opta's supercomputer calls Australia the group's outsider at 58.8 percent to reach the round of 32.

One thing to read. 100 Years of the Socceroos: A Team Indivisible from Australian Society, PFA (2022).

Türkiye (Ay-Yıldızlılar)

Coach Vincenzo Montella

Hot take. Yıldız becomes a household name, Güler dazzles, and Türkiye make it to the round of 16.

One thing to know that'll make you sound smart to your friends. "Türkiye's domestic league, Süper Lig, is one of the best in the world, regularly incubating world class talent. They rank well above other European leagues from Scotland, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, and Czechia."

Word from home. Vincenzo Montella is keeping Türkiye's expectations close to his vest:

"We want to reach our goal step by step at the 2026 World Cup." Vincenzo Montella, Anadolu Ajansı

The story. Türkiye are back at a World Cup for the first time in 24 years, the generation after their stunning third-place run in 2002, with the hype built around Arda Güler and Juventus standout Kenan Yıldız.

Head vs. heart. Opta's supercomputer makes Türkiye the group's second favorite, into the round of 32 in 73.0 percent of simulations, just behind the USA.

One thing to read. Reviewing Histories of Turkish Football, The Bosphorus Review of Books (2019).

Group D: Fixtures to watch / predictions

Fixtures to watch.

• Fri, Jun 12: USA vs Paraguay, 9:00 p.m. ET (FOX / Telemundo)
• Sat, Jun 13: Australia vs Türkiye, 12:00 a.m. ET (FOX / Telemundo)
• Fri, Jun 19: USA vs Australia, 3:00 p.m. ET (FOX / Telemundo)
• Fri, Jun 19: Türkiye vs Paraguay, 12:00 a.m. ET (FS1 / Telemundo)
• Thu, Jun 25: Türkiye vs USA, 10:00 p.m. ET (FOX / Telemundo)

The call.